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FMAMGM
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| Joined: | Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 |
| Location: | USA |
| Posts: | 33 |
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Posted: Tue Feb 24th, 2009 07:59 pm |
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The 3-day outlook shows a low-level jet associated with an upper-level trough coming into the southern plains into the Mid-Mississippi valley by Thursday evening. Warm air ahead of the trough and that give us a possibility of convection. The outlook further says the expected limited amount of convection, trough, and cold air aloft along with strong vertical shear on Thursday afternoon and evening mean a possible isolated threat for hail in the region - especially the Ozarks area - during that period. By later in the evening, most activity could be along and east of the Mid-Mississippi valley and to the south in AR, and the activity associated with the cold front would mean wind/hail probabilities there. Timing of the trough and cold front will make the difference in your seeing any kind of storms vs a wind-rain event.
PLENTY of time for it to become more organized...or fizzle a bit.
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Christian Young
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| Joined: | Tue Jan 27th, 2009 |
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Posted: Thu Feb 26th, 2009 10:30 am |
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It sure looks like some ominous clouds and storms come through the region over the next day.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for severe weather over the region from the Iowa-Missouri border into the mid-south over the period of time Thursday late morning until Friday mid-morning because of the current warm front moving north, moisture, warm air in place, and a surface low expected to cross the northern part of MO during the day on Thursday. Elevated CONVECTION is expected over much of the state due to high dew points and warm temperatures. As the surface low crosses northern MO it will deepen, and with the trailing cold front, the NWS expects surface based convection this afternoon, especially across northeastern MO in the afternoon hours.
But, as the movement of the cold air progresses into the warm and wet air, the shear should be sufficient enough for isolated SUPERCELLS to pop up across mid-MO into East-Central MO. Much of the thunderstorm activity is expected to organize in a complex line of storms along with the cold front, creating the possibility of wind damage and hail, along with a possible tornado, especially where supercells form.
The Storm Prediction Center says that early today, there is a slight risk for hail - that probably keeps it mainly along the northwest MO/NE/IA/KS border areas and points along the cold air mass near the MO-IA border if I read it correctly. The midnight outlook suggest that surface-based storm development isn't likely until mid to late afternoon, with the greatest potential for severe storms in late afternoon through the evening and into the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning.
During the evening and night hours on Thursday, the greatest risk for organized storms including SUPERCELLS and bows due to moderate instability is in the Lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks, progressing into Arkansas, Louisiana, and northern Texas by early Friday morning.
Isolated tornadoes are possible during the period, but severe hail damage and wind damage are also a feature expected with some storms.
The hail with it, you say? You may be surprised if nobody warned you. But since you read this board, you've been warned.
The SPC Outlook will be updated around 7 am CST, so look for further changes.
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