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artmorris
Administrator
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Posted: Wed Dec 5th, 2007 02:28 pm |
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From the KC Weather service.....
Latest forecast models are projecting a potentially dangerous winter
weather event this weekend along a Topeka, Kansas City, Sedalia and
Hannibal line...The threat exists for a significant ice storm that
might rival the Jan 2007 event we had here...Flooding rains and even
severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ozarks into
Arkansas...Emergency services groups and Official Emeregency Stations
should carefully follow forecast updates across these
areas..
Attached is a portion of the current AFD out of NWS-KCMO...
"WITH NO UPSTREAM KICKER...THIS PATTERN WILL BE LOCKED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MEAN TROUGH TOFORCE REPEATED EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOW A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN SETUP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED BENEATH A LAYER OF VERY WARM/MOIST (AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE) AIR ALOFT.
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPFS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...BULLSEYED AT A REMARKABLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL RUN TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. SO WE`RE NOT ONLY DEALING WITH A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT...BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING ICE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MANY DETAILS STILL TO COME...BUT TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WITH RESPECT To LONGEVITY...INTENSITY...OR PRECIPITATION TYPE.
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VORTEXX
Member
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Posted: Thu Dec 6th, 2007 01:45 am |
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As of now...
Early model runs continue to show a significant weather event
unfolding over the next 7 to 10 days across the midwest...A stalling
frontal boundary along with multiple storm systems during this
period...Most adjacent NWS offices are calling for dangerious to
potentially "CATASTROPHIC" severe winter weather during this
period...I STRONGLY ENCOURAGE ALL PARTIES TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS AND REVIEW NWS FORECASTS VERY
CAREFULLY....Jim
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Buddy Dornster
Member
| Joined: | Sun Feb 4th, 2007 |
| Location: | Missouri USA |
| Posts: | 141 |
| Status: |
Offline
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Posted: Thu Dec 6th, 2007 11:15 am |
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 Here we go, global warming at work...
from NWS this morning.
... WHILE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAIN HARD TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTER
STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS
INCREASING.
Jim is right, have your plans and equipment in place, even at home.
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artmorris
Administrator
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Posted: Thu Dec 6th, 2007 11:31 pm |
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Update as of Thursday 630pm
MAJOR ICE STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING ...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A MAJOR ICE
STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI OZARKS. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ENTERING CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
NORTH OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM REEDS SPRING TO VIENNA.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. STAY
TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SPRINGFIELD ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM.
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